Really important question on custody rights
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i think you are perfectly right carang. to put such an argument in front of a hk judge might actually backfire if that is maybe even what he/she is doing at home...
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Never do a runner in a situation like this. The Hague convention is based on habitual residence and if a child is taken out of that country by one parent or the other, there is an abduction that has taken place and must be resolved before the issue of custody is even discussed let alone decided. Many an expat have thought this the easier option--get the kid back to the UK or the US and then fight it out, but they end up finding themselves in far more trouble this way.
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penguinsix, it sounds like you know about this - out of curiosity, do you know what arguments have been successful in allowing the kid to go back to the UK/US with one parent when the other opposes it?
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I had a chat with someone knowledgeable on this and they said in the hypothetical, the father can't invoke the Hague Convention and force the child to stay in HK because he himself is not a HK citizen and is only in HK on a work visa that likely is renewed every year. Might be a slightly different issue if he's a permanent resident, but essentially if they got the kid their UK/US citizenship and they are likewise UK/US citizens, a HK court will not be compelled to insist the child stays in HK.