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Less than 20 days... Scarlet Fever?

  1. #1
    erina320's Avatar
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    Less than 20 days... Scarlet Fever?

    We have less than 20 days to go before we're in HK and with the recent announcement of a scarlet fever outbreak in HK that is antibiotic resistant my question is...

    Is anyone concerned about scarlet fever?

    Should we post pone moving the kids and meet up with Daddy at a later date?

  2. #2
    carang's Avatar
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    no, not yet... it's a handful of cases out of over 7 million people....i have two kids and i'm not overly concerned.... yet.

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    I kind of have the feeling it's going to turn out like h1n1 and sound more scary than it is, but who's to say.

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    thanka2 is offline Registered User
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    I'm not particularly worried. If you know anything about scarlet fever you know that it starts off as strep throat. If it's not treated properly then it develops into scarlet fever which can not only kill you but also if you do survive can leave you sterile.

    I think the key for most children will be for parents just keeping an eye on their health--if they complain of a sore throat, take them to get antibiotics right away. carang is right that there have only been a few cases and at this point, I think only 2 deaths--that's a pretty low number for a population of over 7 million people.
    “Many women have described their experiences of childbirth as being associated with a
    spiritual uplifting, the power of which they have never previously been aware …
    To such a woman childbirth is a monument of joy within her memory.
    She turns to it in thought to seek again an ecstasy which passed too soon.”

    ~ Grantly Dick-Read (Childbirth Without Fear)

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    MJW, girl, born March 17, 2011, 4:14 pm, HK

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    Honkyblues is offline Registered User
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    Ah, but it's not 2 deaths out of a population of 7-8 million that is statistically relevant. It's 2 deaths out of about 500 cases. That 1 per 250 cases. Plus lots of hospitalisations. This is a nasty, mutated strain of the virus.

    Having said that, as Thanka and Cara say, no one here is particularly worried. It's just a case of keeping an eye on your kids' health and seeking early treatment if any symptoms arise.

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    carang's Avatar
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    looking at it that way, there have been about 500-ish cases out of a population of over 7M. of that 500 possible cases, only 2 deaths....

    so, chances of contracting it are: 0.007%
    chances of dying from it once contracted are: 0.4%

    still seems rather remote to me....

  7. #7
    thanka2 is offline Registered User
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honkyblues View Post
    Ah, but it's not 2 deaths out of a population of 7-8 million that is statistically relevant. It's 2 deaths out of about 500 cases. That 1 per 250 cases. Plus lots of hospitalisations. This is a nasty, mutated strain of the virus.

    Having said that, as Thanka and Cara say, no one here is particularly worried. It's just a case of keeping an eye on your kids' health and seeking early treatment if any symptoms arise.
    I'm guessing more children are still dying every year because of just the seasonal flu or stomach problems and their complications. Just keep an eye on your child's health and seek early treatment. Also, when it comes to the cases where children do die usually we find out later that there were other complications such as the child already was ill or had a poor immune system.
    “Many women have described their experiences of childbirth as being associated with a
    spiritual uplifting, the power of which they have never previously been aware …
    To such a woman childbirth is a monument of joy within her memory.
    She turns to it in thought to seek again an ecstasy which passed too soon.”

    ~ Grantly Dick-Read (Childbirth Without Fear)

    Mother of Two
    JMW, boy, born November 29, 2007, 9:43 pm, USA
    MJW, girl, born March 17, 2011, 4:14 pm, HK

  8. #8
    penguinsix is offline Registered User
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    A couple of points:

    There have been 400-500 cases as others have mentioned. There are 7 million or so people in Hong Kong, but this is primarily affecting children. Approximately 93% of the cases are in children under 10. There are not 7 million people under 10 so drawing statistical conclusions from the overall numbers vs. cases is somewhat misleading.

    This mutated form is "more resistant" to the traditional antibiotics used for treating scarlet fever, but it is not totally resistant. In addition, other antibiotic treatments are showing effectiveness if implemented in a timely fashion.

    http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP...ng+Kong&s=News

    Finally, don't postpone your trip. You are going to be dealing with outbreaks of this and that throughout your stay in Hong Kong, and you'll probably find yourself in closer proximity to individuals here than you are in your current living situation. You're going to have to practice good health habits such as washing hands and food contact surfaces, checking your kids health (and a watchful eye on the friends they play with). Dealing with this current outbreak is not going to be all that much different from dealing with the next outbreak of this or that.

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